Large opportunity for overseas voting; postal ballots may play important role in determining referendum results

According to the Election Commission (EC), there are over 127.6 million voters in the country for the upcoming election. Of these, 1,527,155 voters have registered to cast postal ballots. Among the registered voters, nearly 760,000 are expatriates, while the rest registered from within the country.

Since the national parliamentary election is constituency-based, the impact of postal votes will not be uniform across all areas. According to election-related experts, most constituencies have comparatively large margins of victory. However, in constituencies where postal voters number 10,000 or more, there is a possibility that the results may be influenced.

Meanwhile, this parliamentary election is being held alongside a referendum on the implementation of the July National Charter. The result of this referendum will be determined based on the total votes cast across all 300 constituencies in the country. Hence, postal votes may play a significant role in determining the referendum outcome.

If the ‘Yes’ votes in the referendum constitute a majority, the constitutional proposal for the July National Charter will be implemented. This includes the provision for a future bicameral national parliament, where the allocation of seats in the upper house will be proportional to votes obtained in the lower house. Postal votes may also gain importance in this context.

EC sources stated that in 18 parliamentary constituencies, the number of postal voters exceeds 10,000. Almost all of these constituencies are located in the Chittagong division. The highest registration is in Feni-3, where more than 16,000 postal voters are registered.

Additionally, constituencies like Chittagong-15, Comilla-10, Noakhali-1 and 3, and Feni-2 have over 12,500 voters registered for postal ballots. In 97 other constituencies, the number of postal voters ranges between 5,000 and 10,000. The lowest registration is in Bagerhat-3.

For the first time, expatriate Bangladeshis are being given a large-scale opportunity to vote via postal ballots. Although the law previously existed, the system was limited. This time, the Election Commission has introduced ‘IT-supported postal ballots’ and necessary amendments have been made in the election law for this purpose.

Among the registered voters, there are nearly 600,000 government officers and employees from within the country, about 160,000 election officers, 10,000 Ansar-VDP members, and more than 6,000 prisoners.

Former Additional Secretary of the Election Commission, Jesmin Tuli, believes that in constituencies where postal voters exceed 10,000, if one party secures a significant portion of these votes, the result may be affected.

Badiul Alam Majumdar, head of the Election System Reform Commission, also expressed concern. He said that the postal ballot system has multiple steps, making it somewhat like a ‘black box,’ which raises the risk of lack of transparency and allegations of manipulation. He also noted that ballots were sent even before candidacies were finalized, which may create controversy.

EC officials said that although registration numbers are high, the exact number of votes cast cannot be confirmed until the results are announced. If postal ballots do not reach their destination by 4:30 PM on voting day, they will not be counted. Past experience shows that postal ballots have a comparatively higher spoilage rate.

In one event, Election Commissioner Abul Fazal Md. Sanaullah mentioned that internationally, the wastage rate of postal ballots is about 24 percent. That is, one in every four ballots does not reach its destination.

All in all, despite limitations and risks, postal voting has created a new reality in national elections and referendums. The extent of its influence will depend on voter turnout and constituency margins, according to experts.