Israel Faces Complicated Government-Formation Deadlock as President Set to Nominate Candidate on Sunday

International Desk | PNN

Political uncertainty has emerged over the formation of Israel’s next government after no party or alliance secured an outright majority in the national election. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has been able to secure the support of the 61 lawmakers required to form a government. Against this backdrop, President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to announce on Sunday (November 8) the name of a candidate he will task with forming the next government.

Consultations between the president and political party leaders concluded on Thursday. During the discussions, 67 members of the 120-seat Knesset expressed support for Eisenkot, while 46 backed Netanyahu. However, these figures do not necessarily guarantee that either candidate can form a government. Among the 67 lawmakers supporting Eisenkot are members of parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, whom he is unwilling to include in his government.

Meanwhile, the 46 lawmakers supporting Netanyahu are fewer than the 53 seats held by his own bloc. His long-time ally, the ultra-Orthodox Jewish party United Torah Judaism, has withheld its support because Netanyahu’s alliance failed to secure an exemption from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

President Herzog has not publicly endorsed any candidate so far. He has indicated that although the numbers of parliamentary supporters may make the situation appear straightforward, internal disagreements within political alliances and disputes between rival groups make it difficult to assess who can realistically form a government.

In the election, Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc secured 53 seats. Four Jewish-led parties supporting Eisenkot hold a combined 48 seats. Meanwhile, Arab-led parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel won 19 seats. Of these, the Joint List secured 11 seats, while the United Arab List, also known as Ra’am, won eight.

With the support of all 19 lawmakers from the Arab parties, Eisenkot’s backing would rise to 67 seats. However, his reluctance to bring these parties into his government means he must seek alternative support to secure power.

In this regard, support from the two ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, could bring Eisenkot’s total to 61 seats. Although United Torah Judaism has indicated that it may offer conditional support, Shas announced on Wednesday that it would back Netanyahu.

On the other hand, Netanyahu would need to persuade at least one party from the opposition camp to support him if he hopes to form a government. The possibility of a national unity government, in which the two leaders share the prime minister’s office, has also been discussed. However, many of Netanyahu’s political rivals have expressed reluctance to join a government under his leadership.

The prospect of parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel joining the government remains limited for now. The Joint List has proposed supporting Eisenkot from outside the government rather than directly participating in it. Ra’am, however, has indicated that it is interested in joining the government.

Eisenkot has set several conditions for accepting support from the Arab parties. One of them involves recognising Hamas as a “terrorist organisation”. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has expressed support for disarming Hamas but has refused to describe the organisation as a “terrorist” group.

Under Israeli law, a candidate does not necessarily need the support of 61 lawmakers to form a government. A government can be established with fewer than 61 seats if it wins a confidence vote in parliament. In that situation, support from Arab parties outside the government could become important for Eisenkot. He may also have an opportunity to secure a majority later through negotiations with ultra-Orthodox parties.

Ahmad Tibi, a senior Joint List leader, told the Associated Press that rejecting political partnership with Arab parties would demonstrate that Israel was not a full democracy for all its citizens, but rather an ethnically supremacist state.

The primary objective of the Arab-led parties is to end Netanyahu’s rule. The Joint List said it had supported Eisenkot in response to public demands to prevent Netanyahu and his government from returning to power. However, the decision does not mean that all their objections to the opposition camp’s policies or its position on incitement against Palestinian citizens have been resolved.

In exchange for providing support from outside the government, the parties representing Palestinian citizens are seeking assurances on several issues. These include an end to home demolitions, measures to prevent incitement against Palestinian citizens, effective action against crime in Arab-majority communities, and clear progress on the political future of Palestinians.

Joint List leader Ahmad Tibi said he did not expect such a “reformist government” to end Israel’s wars or establish a Palestinian state. However, he believes it could address some of the everyday problems faced by Palestinian citizens, particularly by reducing violent crime in the areas where they live.

Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has also emphasised the need to move the government away from the influence of Netanyahu and hard-right figures, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

The candidate nominated by the president will initially have 28 days to form a government. If necessary, the period can be extended by another 14 days. If the first candidate fails, a second candidate will be assigned the task. Should that attempt also fail, a majority of Knesset members will be able to nominate a third candidate, who will receive a final 14-day period to form a government.

If all attempts fail, the Knesset will be dissolved and a new election will have to be held within 90 days. Until a new government is formed, Netanyahu will continue to serve as caretaker prime minister.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Israeli affairs analyst Nehru Jamhoor said another election appeared to be the most likely outcome after a prolonged period of political deadlock. He suggested that Netanyahu might also welcome such a scenario. Through a fresh election, Netanyahu could seek to weaken the opposition and take advantage of a possible decline in voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Overall, although Eisenkot appears to have the advantage in terms of the number of lawmakers expressing support for him, his reluctance to include Arab parties in his government has emerged as a major obstacle. Netanyahu, meanwhile, is also struggling to gather the support required to return to power. The fate of Israel’s next government will therefore depend not only on President Herzog’s decision but also on political negotiations over the coming days.